Energy markets in Asia seem to be facing growing pressure because of disruptions in the energy supply linked to the Strait of Hormuz. As stated in a recent report published by Goldman Sachs on April 3, 2026, growing shortages, reduced imports, and surging prices have put several Asian economies at greater risk of implementing fuel rationing.
As noted in the report, reliance on energy supplies from the Middle East and already limited fuel reserves may increase the impact of continued supply disruptions through the most important oil transport routes.
In order to evaluate how shortage risks may play out under such conditions, the report looks into fuel inventories, trade flows, and market dynamics.
Thin fuel inventories expose Asia to threats
Among other factors discussed in the report, the relative thinness of fuel inventories is perhaps the most significant warning signal. In line with Goldman Sachs’ report, several Asian economies had already thin fuel inventories prior to the current supply disruptions.
The data provided in the report indicates that some countries in the region possess refined fuel reserves equal to about one month of their demand. Europe, however, stores reserves equal to 50 days’ worth of fuel consumption, thus providing a much higher safety margin against any problems in supply.
In terms of petrochemical feedstock such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), there are even fewer reserves, as storing them requires greater capacity and facilities.
According to Goldman Sachs, in addition to possessing fewer reserves, Asian countries outside of China also import more refined fuel products from abroad than the majority of Western nations.
Even though some of the Asian countries can make up for any deficiency with domestic refining or crude oil stockpiling, there are many countries that are completely reliant upon continuous imports of fuel cargo.
High dependence on oil and refined fuel imports from the Persian Gulf
The second risk factor associated with the region is its high level of dependence on oil supplies from the Persian Gulf.
According to the Goldman Sachs report, many Asian economies depend heavily on Gulf supplies for energy. The figures presented by the report reveal that the economies considered in the study—which account for about a third of the world’s refined products’ demand—depend on the Persian Gulf to supply almost half of their imported oil and fuels.
For some economies like those of South Korea and Singapore, this dependency could go up to almost three-quarters of their energy supply.
As a result, these countries are heavily dependent on the region for their oil supply, and any disruption in the region or its connections would put them at risk.
In fact, even a limited decrease in exports from the region can significantly affect Asian economies, despite their efforts to seek other options from areas such as Russia and Brazil. According to the report, such options will not be enough to compensate for any prolonged shortages in the Gulf.
Decreases in imports from the Middle East
March is considered by the report as the month when the effect of any disruptions became apparent on oil flows into Asia.
Analysis of shipping figures provided by Goldman Sachs reveals a significant drop in tanker exports from the Persian Gulf region in the last two weeks of March. The imports to Asia came later, after taking into account the time needed for cargo still en route to reach its destination.
Based on its analysis, Goldman Sachs believes that by the end of March, Asia’s net oil imports would have dropped by an estimated nine million barrels per day from previous levels.
The main reason for the drop has been a fall in crude oil deliveries, although there has also been an impact on refined products.
Short-term solutions
While certain countries have tried to soften the blow by buying oil from other sources apart from the Persian Gulf or cutting back on refined fuels exports, Goldman Sachs predicts that such moves may not be enough should the supply shock persist.
Sharp rise in diesel and jet fuel prices
The tightness in supply has been felt through soaring global fuel prices.
According to the Goldman Sachs report, diesel and jet fuel saw the most substantial price hikes.fuel
In other areas, fuel purchase restrictions have been imposed by government officials in order to conserve the dwindling stocks of fuels. The governments have also started to focus on the fuel needed for transport activities such as the use of gasoline and diesel to keep services running.
Countries like Thailand and India are reported to be among those often highlighted when it comes to the problem of fuel rationing and shortages.
The industries are also starting to feel the pinch. It is reported that companies making petrochemicals such as naphtha in South Korea and Japan have curtailed production in view of possible shortages of their primary feedstock.
All these developments indicate that the disruption in the supply chain is starting to extend outside of the realm of finance.
A stressed market
According to Goldman Sachs, the existing conditions in the oil market can be explained by the effects of multiple factors acting together.
Inventory tightness, heavy reliance on Persian Gulf imports, and falling supplies are combining to produce a volatile state of affairs in Asia’s energy sector.
However, while short-term fixes such as securing alternative sources and cutting exports have served to mitigate this, the scope for error is diminishing fast.
Should there be further disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, there could be growing tension in the upcoming weeks as stocks dwindle and the competition for the available fuel increases.
It seems that petrochemical feedstock such as naphtha and LPG are especially at risk, given their inability to store large amounts of oil and their importance in production.
The next few weeks will prove crucial in determining whether the existing disruption is merely a temporary one or will turn into a more comprehensive crisis in the Asian economy reliant on oil imports.
